HRNW – The bird flu virus currently circulating in wild birds, poultry, and several mammal species may pose a far greater global health threat than COVID-19 if it evolves to spread efficiently between humans, according to the head of the Respiratory Infections Centre at France’s Institut Pasteur.
A Growing Global Threat
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (commonly known as bird flu) has already caused the culling of hundreds of millions of birds worldwide, disrupting food chains and contributing to rising prices.
Despite the scale of the outbreak, human infections remain extremely rare.
Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, medical director at Institut Pasteur, told Reuters that the greatest concern is the virus adapting for human-to-human transmission.
“If the virus gains the ability to transmit between humans, it could spark a pandemic,” she said.
The Institut Pasteur was among the early European laboratories to develop and distribute COVID-19 testing methods globally during the 2020 outbreak.
Lack of Antibodies Against H5 Bird Flu
Rameix-Welti explained that while people naturally carry antibodies against seasonal flu strains such as H1 and H3, there is no existing immunity against the H5 virus now affecting birds and several mammals.
This mirrors the lack of immunity the world had before COVID-19 emerged.
Unlike COVID-19—which disproportionately affected vulnerable groups—avian flu viruses are known to cause severe illness and fatalities even in healthy adults and children.
“A bird flu pandemic could be extremely severe, potentially worse than what we experienced with COVID-19,” she added.
Human Cases Remain Rare but Concerning
Several isolated human infections have been recorded over the years, often linked to direct contact with infected animals.
The U.S. recently reported its first-ever human case of H5, N5, involving a patient with underlying medical conditions who later passed away.
According to the World Health Organization, nearly 1,000 human cases of H5 infections have been reported globally between 2003 and 2025, with a fatality rate of about 48%, mostly in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Pandemic Risk Remains Low — for Now
Despite the potential dangers, experts emphasize that the current probability of a human pandemic is still low.
Gregorio Torres, head of Science at the World Organisation for Animal Health, told Reuters:
“We must stay prepared, but for now the risk remains very low. Everyday activities—like walking in the forest or eating poultry and eggs—are still safe.”
Better Prepared Than Before COVID-19
Rameix-Welti noted that global systems are now better equipped to respond quickly to emerging flu threats.
“Unlike the early days of COVID-19, we already have candidate vaccines and the capability to produce them rapidly,” she said.
She added that existing antiviral stockpiles are expected to be effective against current avian influenza strains if needed.
